Gay’s plus-minus based impact estimates were greatly skewed by those first four games, but once the Kings settled on Barnes as a replacement their results have been more in-line with expectation for removing a small-positive impact player. However, in the next seven games Gay sat, he was replaced in the starting lineup by Matt Barnes, and the Kings’ MOV was -2.1. Overall, in those four games, the Kings were outscored by 76 points for a MOV of -19.0. In one of those four games, DeMarcus Cousins also sat. In the first four games Gay sat this season, he was replaced in the starting lineup by either Omri Casspi or Garrett Temple. That’s a bit incongruous, though it could be a small sample size issue or even a real (if surprising) effect. The MOV suggests the Kings really struggle in games Gay doesn’t play, but their win percentage is actually higher in games Gay sits. Gay sits (11 games): 5-6 record, Margin of Victory -8.3 Gay plays (30 games): 11-19 record, Margin of Victory (MOV) of -0.8 As a recent article corroborates, this type of player does generally have a small net positive impact that isn’t game-changing.īut returning to present data, why is Gay’s on/off plus-minus so much larger than expected? Is it an indication that the Kings’ bench is so weak on the wing that even Gay’s small positive impact was making a huge difference? Gay has already missed 11 games this season, while playing in 30, so let’s review the Kings’ performance in those games: Gay is a high-volume wing scorer with average efficiency and a reasonably low assist percentage of 14.2. This seems like a more reasonable estimate - a small net positive, but not monstrous impact. Looking at a regressed plus-minus stat like ESPN’s RPM would be expected to give a more accurate result, and currently Gay’s RPM is +1.99, good for 49th in the NBA.
![rudy gay nba stats rudy gay nba stats](https://content.2kdb-cdn.com/2k20/players/rudy_gay_41341.jpg)
![rudy gay nba stats rudy gay nba stats](https://www.nba.com/kings/sites/kings/files/rudyinjury_4.jpg)
Raw on/court off/court plus-minus is very noisy, especially before the season is over. Off the bat, that requires further examination. In his last three seasons in Sacramento, Gay’s on/off plus-minus has been +2.4 (2014), +4.0 (2015), +2.0 (2016) and now +11.7 this season. Read More: The Joel Embiid All-Star campaign worked…sort ofĪ +11.7 on/off plus-minus would be VERY high for Gay, it would represent a significant career-high, in fact.
![rudy gay nba stats rudy gay nba stats](https://content.2kdb-cdn.com/2k20/players/rudy_gay_1341.jpg)
But before we put too much into that, we have to put it in context. According to Basketball Reference, his on-court/off-court plus-minus is +11.7 - a raw value that states the Kings’ scoring margin per 100 possessions is 11.7 points better with Gay than without him.
![rudy gay nba stats rudy gay nba stats](https://content.2kdb-cdn.com/2k21/players/rudy_gay_8591.jpg)
What’s more important is to figure out what the team looks like, without Gay, at the bottom line.Ī first pass way to do that might be to look at Gay’s plus-minus stats on the season. However, in terms of actual impact on the Kings’ bottom line, that isn’t so important. All told, this season Gay has averaged 18.7 points, 6.3 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.5 steals and 2.5 turnovers in 33.8 minutes per game, with a 55.9 true shooting percentage.įor fantasy sports, the question of interest would be to decide how Gay’s boxscore stats will be distributed among the other players on the team. Gay was the second-leading scorer and rebounder on the Kings, one of only three players averaging double-figures and was their leading offensive threat from the wing. Rudy Gay tore his Achilles tendon on Wednesday and is out for the rest of the season, which begs the question: What impact will that have on a young Sacramento Kings team that has flirted with the eighth playoff spot in the Western Conference before recently sliding a few games out? By Andre Snellings 5 years ago Follow Tweet